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Appendix

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&oquestionsposed

Chapter2:Withfairdigeightorteheevennumberis12,andtheultipleofsixis18or110respectively.Therespeultipleofthreeare14(twoi),whichgivesindependend310,whiot.

Chapter6:Intheoneypuzzle,youshouldaimtobank£12,000atyourfirstchoice.Ifitworks,youhopetobank£3,000fails,youmusttryfor£15,000ime.Youroverallwinningceis(612)*(1011)+(612)*(411)=84132=711,whichishigherthaactic.

In46similarpames,theimesaSpadearises,youmakeaof50chips;theother37times,youlosetheextrastake.Ifyoustayinfor12chipsorfewer,you’llbeaheade,butifyouhavetopay13ore,you’llexpeorethanyougain.

Chapter7:Theiscarriageis1in m,theceofaDown’sbabyis1in n,both mand nlargeandm>ify>x+n

SupposeAerCeliahas nsohy.IfBettyisnotacarrier,allCelia’ssoobehealthy;ifBettyisacarrier,theceCeliawillnotbeacarrier(andhenceallhersohy)is12,andthecesheisacarrier,buthelessallhersohy,is(12)n+1.SotheposterioroddsofBettybeingacarrier,aftertheinformationaboutallAhyhepriorodds(i.e.thoseputedusiionaboutAhybrothers),multipliedbyallthesefactorsoftheform(12+(12)n+1)fromhersisters.vertthisfigureintotheprobabilitythatBettyisacarrier,aofindtheeisacarrier.

Chapter8:Intherandomizedresponseexamples,supposetheproportionofsmokersis x,andallahful.Thecase,theoverallproportionof‘Agree’answersis0.8x+0.2(1-x);equatethisto13,solvetofind x=29.Inthesedcase,theproportionof‘Yes’answersis0.8x+0.22;settio13gives x=724.

Chapter9:Let xbethemeahrowstogetHH.TogetthefirstHtakestwothrows,e.Afterthis,weohrow;ahen,halfthetimewemustbeginagain.So x=2+1+(x2),hence x=6.

&e,ifyouropposHHH,youshouldchooseTHH,andyceis78;ifshepicksHHT,agaiHH,andwin34ofthetime;toherHTH,respondHHT,againstTHH,useTTH–inboththesecases,expe23ofthetime.SymmetryleadstothebestchoistTTT,TTH,THT,andHTT.

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